As promised, here is the first installment of Dion Caputi’s 2014 NFL Mock Draft. So as to avoid over-stuffing appetites for draft-related content too early in the process, I’ve opted to keep mocks to a minimum until this point. However, with the big day(s) approaching fast, be prepared for a ramped up effort to provide you with evaluation notes, analysis, and – of course – mocks. Now, lets get after it:
1. Houston Texans: Blake Bortles, QB. UCF
Matt Schaub is officially out of town and the combination of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Case Keenum and T.J. Yates won’t offer new management any palpable assurances. I lend a fair amount of credence to the notion that Bill O’Brien likes a particular style of quarterback. In two years at Penn State, he transformed an erratic Matt McGloin into a more well-versed pocket passer, before coaching the tall-standing gunslinger Christian Hackenberg to 2013 Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors. Of the quarterback triumvirate that the draft’s top 10 will be focused around, the lone prospect that fits O’Brien’s physical mold is Blake Bortles. The big, pocket-mobile passer has all the tools necessary to be a franchise cornerstone and the talent to warrant No. 1 overall consideration.
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2. St. Louis Rams (f/WAS): Greg Robinson, OT. Auburn
Arguably the most valuable prospect in this draft class, quarterbacks-aside. The underclassman blocker has quickly become a top 3 lock and perhaps the standalone tackle above Jake Matthews. A really good bender with quick feet, Robinson displayed all season how physical he can be with pads on and an athletic inclination during workouts at this year’s combine. The endgame for St. Louis, were they to select Robinson No. 2 overall, would be to plug the Auburn product in at left tackle. Short (and long) term, it would allow the organization to slide Jake Long to the right side, where he is likely to be more effective. Conversely, if St. Louis is comfortable with Long on the blindside and can’t move down, you have to think Sammy Watkins is a very logical option for a team that has flexibility with its picks.
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3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jadeveon Clowney, DE. South Carolina
I’d argue that despite Gus Bradley’s comments about Chad Henne “probably” being the opening day starter, that a quarterback should be the pick here. Regardless, the former Seahawks defensive coordinator knows the value of putting pressure on the opposing passer, and few prospects to enter the NFL Draft have projected to be as good at it as Jadeveon Clowney. Motivation is the overwhelming concern to most evaluators, but the disruptive potential that the Gamecocks star offers is sure to make him a dangerous commodity to pass on. There is depth at the quarterback position in the 2014 NFL Draft, so the Jaguars may prefer to target one on day two.
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4. Cleveland Browns: Teddy Bridgewater, QB. Louisville
It’s tough to justify entering a season with Brian Hoyer as the standalone quarterback option when jobs are on the line. The Louisville gunslinger is accurate, mechanically smooth, and did a lot to help build up a program that wasn’t packed with an abundance of offensive talent. The cloudiness over Cleveland’s interest in seeking a quarterback with this pick doesn’t hinder my strong belief that the organization will ultimately opt for a signal caller to build around. New head coach Mike Pettine is a defensive minded individual, and while it may be a stretch here, it can be argued that Justin Gilbert could form a frustratingly good duo with Joe Haden.
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5. Oakland Raiders: Jake Matthews, OT. Texas A&M
The Raiders have done well to invest in veteran pass rushing help, but holes remain. Amidst the fallout of Rodger Saffold’s botched signing and Jared Veldheer’s bay area departure, the organization was left without a viable blindside option. The acquisition of Matt Schaub relieves the pressure to select an immediate improvement at quarterback, and in this scenario a supreme talent is available in a primary area of need. Discovering a long term solution under center remains a legitimate need, however.
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6. Atlanta Falcons: Khalil Mack, OLB. Buffalo
If reports are true, than the Falcons may be looking to move up in order to secure elite pass rushing prospect Jadeveon Clowney, and the Rams at No. 2 are a very likely suitor should that be the case. However, in a no-trade mock, Thomas Dimitroff and co. are pleasantly surprised to find another potentially elite defender to aid a porous pass rush. In multiple ways, this scenario could actually prove more fruitful. The UB standout could have a similar rookie impact to that of Von Miller. It’d be hard to envision Atlanta passing on Mack to reach for offensive tackle Taylor Lewan, but he – as well as Anthony Barr – are likely to be in the discussion, at the very least.
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7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Sammy Watkins, WR. Clemson
The Bucs have very little depth at wide receiver after Vincent Jackson as it is and the team just dealt troubled Mike Williams to Buffalo. The big investment in prized free agent defensive end Michael Johnson negates the need to add a pass rusher here and Alterraun Verner shores up a need at cornerback. Josh McCown was brought in to be Lovie Smith’s starter, so by process of elimination + evaluating available talent in this scenario, top pass catching prospect Sammy Watkins is an easy selection.
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8. Minnesota Vikings: Johnny Manziel, QB. Texas A&M
Love it or hate it, the Vikings desperately need a quarterback, and Johnny Football could very well be the game-changing wildcard that Minnesota lacks. General Manager Rick Spielman is one of few survivors of the Brad Childress-era staff assembled in 2006. He has lasted through two head coaches and two unsuccessful attempts at drafting a franchise quarterback. Swinging for the fences at No. 8 may be his last chance despite being good at his job overall. The Vikes have a penchant for moving down the board and positively manipulating the draft, but if no quarterbacks are available and they can’t, linebacker C.J. Mosley makes a lot of sense in an emergency scenario.
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9. Buffalo Bills: Taylor Lewan, OT. Michigan
The Bills managed to rank in the top third of the league in sacks and the overall pass defense was statistically impressive. What can stand to be improved more so, however, is pass protection. E.J. Manuel put together what I would quantify as an encouraging rookie campaign, but was marred by multiple injuries in the process. Taylor Lewan would offer a level of flexibility to head coach Doug Marrone – who comes from an offensive line background. Every year we witness an emphasis on tackles when a run begins, so taking the big Michigan man here may not wind up being that much of a reach. Lewan can slot in on the right side or push left tackle Cordy Glenn inside to guard – where I’ve always thought he projects better to. Hasean Clinton-Dix could be a natural replacement for the departed Jairus Byrd, as well.
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10. Detroit Lions: Justin Gilbert, CB. Oklahoma State
A dream scenario for the Lions, having arguably the top player available at perhaps their most legitimate of needs fall to them. Gilbert offers the Lions a cornerstone piece to lean on in the secondary and even holds extra value as a return threat. Detroit has been void of a true playmaker in the defensive backfield and there are few players available with the talent level he has remaining in this scenario.
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11. Tennessee Titans: Anthony Barr, OLB. UCLA
New defensive coordinator Ray Horton deploys a host of 3-4 variations and an impact pass rusher to groom into a high leverage role would help the process along. Barr is excellent value, as he could ultimately wind up a top 5 selection and many wouldn’t think twice about it. The converted fullback also provides a level of flexibility amongst the front seven, with versatile linebackers Zach Brown and Akeem Ayers able to line up in a variety of spots. Veteran Shaun Phillips was signed to a two-year deal, but I’m not sure he negates Tennessee’s need to find 3-4 pieces early on.
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12. New York Giants: Aaron Donald, DT. Pittsburgh
Despite losing big Linval Joseph to the Vikings in free agency, the G-Men still have enough run-stuffing size in the middle between Cullen Jenkins and 2013 2nd round pick Jonathan Hankins. Adding an active, high-motor presence like Aaron Donald to help reinforce the defensive line would partially make up for lost depth. Capable in both the run and pass, the Pitt product is well-dressed in accolades and boasts three years of excellent production. Those who write off the 2013 Nagurski, Bednarik, Outland, and Lombardi award winner due to his lack of size are making a critical mistake.
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13. St. Louis Rams: Hasean “Ha Ha” Clinton-Dix, S. Alabama
After improving the offensive line early on, the Rams have even more flexibility at No. 13. Frankly, I’d be very surprised if the Rams were to make both picks without moving down, but with so many premium draft picks available there is plenty of flexibility. Jeff Fisher is a former defensive back himself and while T.J. McDonald had an encouraging rookie season, the organization could stand to pair him with another young talent. Although St. Louis hasn’t shied away from spending high picks on wide receivers, you can’t rule out the possibility this year – Mike Evans would be a natural complement to the electric Tavon Austin.
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14. Chicago Bears: Darqueze Dennard, CB. Michigan State
After improving the pass rush with the addition of Jared Allen, the Bears eliminated a potential early round need. The organization, in my mind, did well to retain Charles Tillman for one more year, but the veteran cornerback is now at an advanced age and regressed last season. While he may remain on the boundary, it can be argued that a move to safety may benefit his career. Regardless, the team needs an infusion of young talent at the position and the consensus All-American Darqueze Dennard is a great fit. There isn’t a very big drop off, if any, from Justin Gilbert in talent and I’d argue Dennard’s positional aptitude is greater.
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15. Pittsburgh Steelers: C.J. Mosley, ILB. Alabama
Particularly in recent years, the Steelers have done well to capitalize on falling talent. The selections of Maurkice Pouncey, Cam Heyward, David DeCastro, and Jarvis Jones helped aid specific needs and promoted a youthful turnover in the process. In this scenario, there are few better fits than the instinctual, athletic C.J. Mosley. Boasting quality physical skills and a high football IQ, the defensive field general can be plugged in next to Lawrence Timmons from day one. We’ve seen the value in many good, young linebackers of the past couple draft classes and I think the Alabama product might be the best prospect of all by comparison. Keeping in touch with the defensive youth movement, I’d keep a close eye on nose tackle Louis Nix. Perhaps even Notre Dame left tackle Zack Martin.
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16. Dallas Cowboys: Kony Ealy, DE. Missouri
It was difficult not to notice how poor the Cowboys defense was last season as it transitioned away from a 3-4 base front. Take DeMarcus Ware out the equation and what’s really left? Particularly along the defensive line, the Cowboys desperately need to add young blood and the well-built, raw talent from Missouri helps aid those concerns. Jeremy Mincey is a half-decent vet and there are a couple young ends that can compete, but the team lacks a potential difference maker. Kony Ealy might be a top 10 player based solely on talent, in my opinion. Safety is also a possibility, as the team has done well to rebuild its secondary in recent years, so Louisville’s Calvin Pryor makes a lot of sense as well.
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17. Baltimore Ravens: Calvin Pryor, S. Louisville
General Manager Ozzie Newsome is top shelf when it comes to roster management and further proved it this offseason by knocking off multiple needs prior to the draft. Last year, the effort to move on in the post-Ed Reed era began with the 1st round selection of promising young Matt Elam. Were the draft to shake out this way, I can definitely see a scenario where the thought of pairing him with the raw, but talented Calvin Pryor is too tantalizing to pass up on. The addition of wily vet Steve Smith eliminates the need to look for a wide receiver here, in my opinion, but big Mike Evans is an intriguing looking fit. Perhaps a projectable 3-4 defensive end like Ra’Shede Hageman or Stephon Tuitt, as well.
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18. New York Jets: Eric Ebron, TE. North Carolina
A little bit of a curveball, as the Jets could greatly benefit from plugging in a number of available defensive talents that Rex Ryan may be chomping on the bit to work with. Still, Eric Ebron’s talent is undeniable and him being unselected at this point would constitute a shock to many onlookers. While I don’t think he’s Vernon Davis 2.0 as a prospect, as some might, the North Carolina star is a mismatch nightmare and will help aid whomever is under center for Gang Green in 2014. As noted, there is a host of defensive building blocks that make sense. A nose tackle like Louis Nix or pass rusher like Dee Ford. The need at cornerback is currently so big that you can’t rule one out despite the lack of true value available, in my opinion.
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19. Miami Dolphins: Zack Martin, OT. Notre Dame
I’m tempted to believe the Dolphins would consider again addressing the defensive line with in-state talent Timmy Jernigan at this point, as he’d be value. However, if offensive line is the decision, which makes more sense to me, than you could make an argument for either Martin or Alabama’s Cyrus Kouandjio. Ultimately, the Notre Dame captain wins out in that situation here, as he is guard/tackle versatile and brings a very level-headed personality into a locker room that could really use it right now.
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20. Arizona Cardinals: Dee Ford, DE/OLB. Auburn
The Cards did very well to fill a sizable need on the blindside with the addition of Jared Veldheer, while also relieving pressure to add immediate help at cornerback with the signing of Antonio Cromartie. On paper, there are few glaring needs for Arizona, but for a team that does well to generate consistent pressure on opposing passers, further reinforcements couldn’t hurt. Disruptive edge rushers are a draft day premium and it would be a technicality that brought Dee Ford to No. 20 overall, in my estimation. Depending on how much faith the organization has in right tackle Bobby Massie, Alabama’s Cyrus Kouandjio could be a natural fit as well. Just a thought, but Austin Seferian-Jenkins would really open up a Cardinals offense that often emphasizes tight ends.
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21. Green Bay Packers: Ra’Shede Hageman, DL. Minnesota
There’s another slight curveball, I’d say. Jernigan still on the board and Hageman goes to Green Bay. Why? Ted Thompson is a bit of a draft day wildcard and I think he does a fair amount of projecting with many his selections. Physically, the Minnesota product is a specimen in the J.J. Watt mold. However, he’s incredibly raw and doesn’t display regular consistency. Hageman has untraceable potential and I think the Pack in particular would believe they can tap it.
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22. Philadelphia Eagles: Bradley Roby, CB. Ohio State
The Eagles began a 3-4 transition and have a few pieces worth emphasizing, but the secondary stands to be improved upon. Malcolm Jenkins was brought in to play safety and pairing him with a fellow Ohio State alum would be an intriguing option, in this case. You can never have enough good cornerbacks and if the semi-enigmatic talent at Bradley Roby’s disposal is properly channeled, he could be a bargain. Consistency is somewhat of a concern, but he won’t be overloaded with responsibility as a rookie.
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23. Kansas City Chiefs: Mike Evans, WR. Texas A&M
It was impossible to predict such a drastic and positive turnaround for the Chiefs in 2013. After picking first overall last year, they’re a team without very many glaring needs this May. Without a safety to potentially plug in next to Eric Berry or additional depth at linebacker, the team can look in a variety of directions. Mike Evans is arguably the best remaining talent and could ultimately wind up going well inside the top 15. Big, red zone threat with strong hands, the Johnny Football’s preferred target is also able to run good routes – a highly intriguing combination. A wide receiver trio of Evans, Bowe, and Avery would be quite formidable, and it can never hurt to add more offensive weaponry.
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24. Cincinnati Bengals: Ryan Shazier, OLB. Ohio State
Cincy stays in-state to seek improvement at the linebacker position, here. Shazier is a twitchy athlete with sideline-to-sideline speed. His positional value is aided by the current crop of young linebackers who have made great contributions early on (e.g. Luke Kuechly, Kiko Alonso, Lavonte David, Bobby Wagner, etc.). Despite losing Michael Johnson, the Bengals have invested premium picks in the defensive end position, so reaching for one – if you even believe one is worthy – isn’t necessary. Combining the All-American Buckeye with Vontaze Burfict and Rey Maualuga would give the Bengals another nice piece on defense.
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25. San Diego Chargers: Kyle Fuller, CB. Virginia Tech
With Irish Chocolate on the board and a palpable need at nose tackle, the Chargers ultimately lean toward the position that is much harder to improve. Simply put, San Diego can’t enter this season with its current group of cornerbacks. Eric Weddle aside, the secondary is in disarray and new blood is needed. Va Tech’s Kyle Fuller is an instinctual boundary defender with great athleticism and physicality. His hand usage in press isn’t what I believe it can be, but there is formidable upside. Some elements of his game are reminiscent of long-time Chargers soldier Quentin Jammer.
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26. Cleveland Browns (f/IND): Brandin Cooks, WR. Oregon State
Despite there being talent available at cornerback and Timmy Jernigan still floating around unpicked, the Browns would do well to surround their new quarterback (No. 4 overall pick Teddy Bridgewater) with more targets. The explosive and athletic Brandin Cooks is a dynamic downfield threat that offers something a little different than what the current Browns receiving corps does. The reliable-handed Oregon State receiver can also create after the catch. An offensive core that features Bridgewater, Cooks, Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron, and co. looks young and formidable. I wouldn’t even rule out a top rated guard like UCLA’s Xavier Su’a-Filo or perhaps guard/swing tackle David Yankey of Stanford.
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27. New Orleans Saints: Demarcus Lawrence, DE/OLB. Boise State
Rob Ryan’s transition to a 3-4 front has panned out, as the Saints recovered from a historically poor 2012 season. However, the focal point of any unbalanced formation is generally the edge rushing Jack linebackers or “conversions.” 26-year-old Junior Galette tallied 12.0 sacks last year and can only benefit from having a formidable bookend. Former JUCO transfer Demarcus Lawrence of Boise State is a fast-rising prospect with a proven track record of pass rushing ability and production, boasting 20.0 sacks over the previous two seasons. Lawrence is fluid in space and has a great physical skill-set to build upon. Not many are mocking him in the first round, but I personally don’t see a very big drop off between Dee Ford and himself. It is a deep wide receiver class, so I think there is more value in the pass rushing option here. Although, in this scenario I’d be very intrigued to see the do-it-all Marqise Lee of USC working with Drew Brees. Champ Bailey may also cancel out any chances of a first round cornerback.
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28. Carolina Panthers: Kelvin Benjamin, WR. Florida State
Full disclosure: I pegged a cornerback here and couldn’t bring myself to stick with it. With the unparalleled depth this draft class has at the wide receiver position, coupled with its lesser positional value, I just don’t know how likely it is that Carolina chooses one here. That said, it’s difficult to justify passing on the opportunity to surround Cam Newton with more weapons, and the national title winner Kelvin Benjamin could be a dyanmic addition. A true redzone threat who high-points with ease, Benjamin is only scratching the surface of his potential. If the organization that drafts him is patient and realizes he will enter the league without much polish, there are a number of benefits to be reaped long term. Although he doesn’t remotely match up in the speed department, Benjamin is of similar size + body type to that of Calvin Johnson’s, and that can (and will) cause mismatches at the next level.
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29. New England Patriots: Timmy Jernigan, DT. Florida State
And the seemingly unrealistic slide is over. Jernigan falling to No. 29 is no indictment of his abilities, but a formality based on the way this mock scenario has panned out in my mind. The Patriots are always a trading candidate on draft day, but in the event a player like this is available at this point, it’s an easy decision. The squatty, powerful Seminole has the skill-set to play either defensive tackle role in a base 4-3 and would be able to contribute without immediate pressure in New England. The countdown on Vince Wilfork’s Patriot career may have begun this offseason and the club has always shown a willingness to be patient with its high picks. The turnover on defense continues with this selection, as Chandler Jones and Timmy Jernigan would be two very formidable building blocks.
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30. San Francisco 49ers: Stephon Tuitt, DE. Notre Dame
San Fran has gotten by nicely along its defensive line for a few years now, but it might be time to begin looking at infusing some youth. In September, both starting ends Justin Smith and Ray McDonald will be 35 and 30, respectively. Adding a top, young talent to groom for the future could prove supremely useful – especially considering the value of Tuitt at this point. The 6’5″ 304 lbs. Fighting Irish 5-tech has tallied a total of 19.5 sacks in two years and has a strong foundation for future improvement.
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31. Denver Broncos: Jason Verrett, CB. Texas Christian
The Super Bowl runners-up suffered the loss of both Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and future Hall of Famer Champ Bailey. Despite landing Aqib Talib in free agency, the team remains a little exposed at the position. TCU’s Jason Verrett reminds me a little of Russell Wilson as a prospect: a complete player who would, in my mind, be a very high pick were it not for less-than-ideal size. That said, he can adapt to multiple coverage schemes, tackle, play physical, and boasts very good hops as well. Despite the height deficiency I do project him to be able to play on the boundary at the next level. I wouldn’t rule out a wide receiver here either. Although Emmanuel Sanders was brought in, the departure of Eric Decker could entice Denver to pull the trigger on any one of the remaining talents at the position. An overabundance of offensive weapons has never harmed a Peyton Manning-led team.
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32. Seattle Seahawks: Cyrus Kouandjio, OT. Alabama
The champion Seattle Seahawks’ very talented roster is well-documented, but the team did witness starting right tackle Breno Giacomini bolt for the Jets. Although the team could also potentially look to replace departed cornerback Brandon Browner, it did just fine without him, so the position is likely to be addressed later. Pete Carroll and co. have been happy with the production of the last Alabama offensive lineman it selected in round 1, in James Carpenter, which can only help the case for this one. Cyrus Kouandjio projects to be a very effective right tackle at the next level and could easily be selected much earlier despite a rocky-at-times pre draft run up. This pick helps shore up one of, if not the only, legitimate positional concern the Seahawks have right now.
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